Predict09.eu : the possible outcome of the June 2009 European Parliament elections (45 days left to the Euroelections June 2009)

On the basis of our predicted make-up of the next European Parliament, José Barroso has a good chance of being re-elected as Commission President.

Source:  Predice09.eu [edited]

Predict09.eu is a prediction of the outcome of the June 2009 European Parliament elections and the resulting make-up of the next European Parliament. The prediction is based on a statistical model of the performance of national parties in European Parliament elections, developed by three leading political scientists: Simon Hix (London School of Economics), Michael Marsh (Trinity College Dublin), and Nick Vivyan (London School of Economics). The prediction will be updated each week until the elections on 4-7 June.

Executive Summary

The European People’s Party will still be the largest group in the next European Parliament, with approximately 249 seats, which is a decrease in percentage terms, from 37% to 34% of the MEPs. The Socialist group will win approximately 209 seats, which is a slight increase in percentage terms, from 27% to 28% of the MEPs.  The Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE) will secure approximately 87 seats. A new European Conservative group, composed of the British Conservatives and their allies, may be the fourth largest group, with about 56 seats. There will be approximately the same number of anti-European and Extreme Right MEPs (about 50 in total) in the new Parliament as in the current Parliament.

Whereas in the current European Parliament the combined forces of the centre-right are larger than the combined forces of the centre-left, in the new Parliament the centre-left are centre-right will be evenly balanced: with about 41% of the seats each, compared to 38% for the left and 40% for right in the previous parliament.

On the basis of our predicted make-up of the next European Parliament, José Barroso has a good chance of being re-elected as Commission President. However, this assumes that the Liberals (ALDE) would support an EPP-Conservative coalition in support of Barroso, which is not a foregone conclusion. An alternative “progressive” coalition, of Liberals, Socialists, Greens, and Radical Left MEPs could still block the re-election of Barroso.

Note: The total number of MEPs will fall from 785 in the current European Parliament to 736 in the new European Parliament elected in June.