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Using a mobile phone to send text messages or surf the Web by laptop will become up to 60 percent cheaper while travelling in the European Union.
Source: EurActiv [Edited]
Using a mobile phone to send text messages or surf the Web by laptop will become up to 60 percent cheaper while travelling in the European Union under price curbs adopted by the European Parliament yesterday (22 April).
Background:
In June 2007, the European Commission introduced a regulation placing caps on prices of cross-border mobile calls in Europe, the so-called ‘Roaming Regulation’. The EU executive’s intervention was limited to roaming because domestic calls remain under the competence of national regulators. The first roaming regulation also excluded text messaging and data.
The caps take effect in July and are being adopted rapidly as EU parliamentarians, facing elections in June, want to show how the bloc can make a positive difference to the daily lives of its nearly 500 million inhabitants.
The change:
EU regulators and the executive European Commission want to end “bill shocks”, whereby business travellers or holidaymakers return home to huge charges for checking emails or surfing the Web while away. Operators will be allowed to charge customers a maximum of €11 cents per roamed text message (SMS), excluding sales tax, compared with current prices of about €28 cents.
Downloading data while roaming will cost a maximum of €1 per megabyte at the wholesale level, falling to €80 cents per megabyte from July 2010 and €50 cents per megabyte from July 2011. The current average wholesale price is about €1.68 per megabyte, with peaks in Ireland (€6.82), Greece (€5.30) and Estonia (€5.10).
Moreover, roaming customers would be able to opt free of charge for a maximum financial limit from March 2010. Providers will have to warn their customers when 80% of the agreed limit has been reached. Once the limit is reached, another notification should be sent, indicating the procedure to be followed if the customer wishes to continue data roaming. If the user does not respond, the provider should cease all data roaming services.
Previous legislation had left out text messaging and data downloading, like checking emails on a laptop or mobile phone while outside a home state.
Roamed voice calls
The new legislation will extend by three years to 2012 price caps that were introduced in 2007 on roamed voice calls – or when mobile phone users make or receive calls outside their home state in the EU.
According to the Commission, consumers are at present paying around 20% more than the time they actually consume when making or receiving calls.
(EurActiv with Reuters.)
Positions:
“I welcome the strong support the European Parliament has today given the Commission’s proposal for creating a single telecoms markets for all Europeans, whether they are crossing a border as tourists or as business travellers,” said José Manuel Barroso, president of the European Commission.
EU Commissioner for Information Society and Media Viviane Reding said: “Using your mobile phone abroad in the EU should not cost unjustifiably more than at home, whether for making calls, sending texts or surfing the Web. Europe’s 37 million tourists and 110 million business travellers are waiting for the promise of the borderless single market to finally have a positive impact on their phone bills.”
Monique Goyens, director-general of BEUC, the European consumer organisation, welcomed the Parliament’s move. “The European Parliament has ensured that consumers enjoying a holiday abroad this summer will not be shocked by extortionate phone bills when they return home, and this is to be warmly welcomed. Using your mobile phone abroad should not cost much more then using it in our own country: it is the same technology and in many instances even the same company,” she stated.
Romanian MEP Adina Valean (ALDE) stressed that “failures in this market created a real need for regulation, but I am also looking forward to increased competition as well as the review we have called for seeking alternative options for regulating roaming services in the future”.
“All mobile users will now have clearer information about the costs of roaming whilst those users who simply send text messages when abroad will no longer pay over the odds,” said UK MEP Giles Chichester (EPP-ED).
“We have seen to it that cheaper mobile phone calls and texts will come into force in time for this summer’s holiday”, said Finnish MEP Reino Paasilinna (PSE). “The prices will start dropping from 1st July, providing real savings for holidaymakers.”
“Eleftherotypia” the second best-selling quality newspaper in Greece dedicated a page on the Thinkaboutit.eu project
It seems people do read what we write here on the Thinkaboutit.eu platform. “Eleftherotypia” the second best-selling quality newspaper in Greece dedicated a page on the Thinkaboutit.eu project.
I translate few of the remarks:
“[...] different kind of news and inside information about the EU can be found on the website www.thinkaboutit.eu, acting like a large newsgathering organisation…[...]
[…] George Jiglau mentions that euro-elections seem like national elections which eventually lead to the European Parliament […]
[...] Ari decides to talk in one of his article on about the 10th anniversary of NATO bombings against Serbia and it seems he must be the only non Greek who is referring to our neighbouring country with the full name FYRO Macedonia… [...]
[…] Mats feels bad because his fellow citizen from Europhiles became Euro-ignorant […]
[….] Talking about the Communications policy Stergios says that “what is NOT needed are well-paid Brussels based civil servants “playing” at being journalists, or communication policy makers appointed by indifferent national governments achieving indifferent goals. Communicating Europe cannot be an automated procedure. You cannot simply push a button to win the minds and hearts of individuals.” […]
[…] George Georgoudis mentions that the EU “should take some clues from the US, where President Obama seems to revitalize “Brand America” after the disastrous Bush years”. […]
The results of the Thinkaboutit.eu initiative seem already self-evident: few weeks before the Euro-elections, the euro-debate in Greece and elsewhere might seem dead, however, there are young people who are interested. On top of that, they dream of a different Europe. In conclusion, if politicians are searching for inspiration, let them switch on their computers.”
Article in Greek: http://www.enet.gr/?i=news.el.article&id=36462&ref=search
Το Κόμμα Νεολαίας Σλοβενίας (μέλος των ευρωπαίων Πρασίνων) αναζητεί υποψήφιους για τις ευρωεκλογές… στο Facebook. Στη Λετονία, το κοινωνικό δίκτυο draugiem.lv παρουσιάζει σε ηλεκτρονική μορφή όλα τα προγράμματα των κομμάτων. Στη Βρετανία, το Jury Team (το «κόμμα χωρίς πολιτικούς», όπως το διαφημίζουν) δίνει τη δυνατότητα σε όλους τους πολίτες να δηλώσουν την υποψηφιότητά τους (έναντι 10 λιρών για «έξοδα φακέλου»). Οι Βούλγαροι, τέλος, δεν διαχωρίζουν τις ευρωπαϊκές από τις εθνικές εκλογές, αντιμετωπίζοντας τις πρώτες ως βαρόμετρο για τις δεύτερες.
*Ολες αυτές οι ειδήσεις δεν αλλιεύονται από κανένα ενημερωτικό διεθνές πρακτορείο, αλλά από την ιστοσελίδα www.thinkaboutit.eu («Σκέψου το»). Πρόκειται για μια πρωτοβουλία του Ευρωπαϊκού Κέντρου Δημοσιογραφίας (EJC) το οποίο «εκπαίδευσε» 81 νέους από τα 27 κράτη-μέλη, προσφέροντας βήμα στις απόψεις τους. Ιδού μερικά παραδείγματα:
*«Το σημερινό εκλογικό σύστημα ευνοεί τις κατακερματισμένες ευρωεκλογές, με κάθε μέλος να οργανώνει διαδικασίες όπου τα εθνικά κόμματα καταρτίζουν λίστες υποψηφίων και διεξάγουν καμπάνιες με βάση θέματα εθνικού ενδιαφέροντος.
Ο ευρω-προσεκτικός
»Αυτές, λοιπόν, δεν είναι ευρωπαϊκές αλλά εθνικές αναμετρήσεις για το Ευρωπαϊκό Κοινοβούλιο», γράφει ο «ευρω-προσεκτικός» όπως αυτοχαρακτηρίζεται, Τζορτζ από τη Βουλγαρία.
*Υπάρχουν και άρθρα που πηγαίνουν πέρα από τους ευρωπαϊκούς θεσμούς (Κοινοβούλιο, Κομισιόν και Συμβούλιο). Οπως εκείνο του Φιλανδού Αρι, ο οποίος ασχολείται με τη «10η επέτειο του βομβαρδισμού της Σερβίας», στις 27 Μαρτίου. Ο ίδιος μάλιστα πρέπει να είναι ο μοναδικός μη Ελληνευρωπαίος που αποκαλεί «(FYRO) Macedonia» τη γειτονική μας χώρα.
*Ο Ματς από την Ολλανδία λυπάται που ελάχιστοι από τους ευρωβουλευτές της χώρας του απάντησαν στις ερωτήσεις του, ενώ σε άλλη παρέμβασή του στιγματίζει το γεγονός ότι οι συμπολίτες του από «ευρω-φίλοι» έχουν γίνει «ευρω-άσχετοι»:
Και οι ευρω-άσχετοι
«Το 23% των Ολλανδώνγνωρίζει ότι θα γίνουν εκλογές, το 20% γνωρίζει ότι πρόκειται για ευρωεκλογές, το 10% ότι θα γίνουν τον Ιούνιο και μόνο 4% γνωρίζει την ακριβή ημερομηνία τους (4 Ιουνίου για τις Κάτω Χώρες)».
*Οσο για τους Ελληνες, δεν μασάνε κι αυτοί τα λόγια τους: «Η Ευρώπη μπορεί και θα έπρεπε να εμπνεύσει τους πολίτες της και ίσως θα έπρεπε να πάρει μερικές ιδέες από τις ΗΠΑ, όπου ο πρόεδρος Ομπάμα μοιάζει να αναβιώνει τη “μάρκα Αμερική” μετά τα καταστροφικά χρόνια Μπους», γράφει ο Γιώργος.
*Μιλώντας για την επικοινωνιακή πολιτική της Ε.Ε., ο Στέργιος στιγματίζει τα κακώς κείμενα: «Αυτό που χρειάζεται είναι ταλέντο και αφοσίωση και όχι καλοπληρωμένοι δημόσιοι υπάλληλοι στις Βρυξέλλες που το παίζουν δημοσιογράφοι ή επικοινωνιολόγοι. Δεν μπορείς να πατήσεις ένα κουμπί και να κερδίσεις το μυαλό και την καρδιά των πολιτών».
*Οι 81 συμμετέχοντες στο φόρουμ, κάποιοι από αυτούς νέοι δημοσιογράφοι, θα συνεχίσουν να πληροφορούν και να σχολιάζουν μέχρι τις κάλπες του Ιουνίου. Κατόπιν, το EJC θα βραβεύσει τις καλύτερες καταχωρίσεις και οι μπλόγκερς περιμένουν ήδη το πάρτι στο Ρότερνταμ…
*Το συμπέρασμα από την πρωτοβουλία αυτή, πάντως, είναι από τώρα δεδομένο:
Λίγες βδομάδες πριν από τις ευρωεκλογές μπορεί ο πολιτικός διάλογος στη χώρα μας (αλλά και σε άλλους εταίρους) για την Ευρώπη να μην έχει καν ανοίξει, υπάρχουν, ωστόσο, παντού νέοι που ενδιαφέρονται. Και μάλιστα την ονειρεύονται διαφορετική. Αν, λοιπόν, οι πολιτικοί ψάχνουν έμπνευση, ας ανοίξουν τον υπολογιστή τους.
Later in the campaign - from 4-30 May - 3D installations based on similar themes and multimedia "Choice Boxes" will be placed in city squares or shopping centres.
Source: UK Office of the European Parliament [edited]
500 posters will be rolled out across London underground stations and bus shelters on Monday as the European Parliament kick starts its UK information campaign to raise awareness of the European elections in June.
The posters will encourage voters on 4 June to think about the choices that have to be made on issues that affect their everyday lives, such as energy, family life and consumer rights. The slogan for the campaign in the UK is: “It’s your choice!”
Dermot Scott, Head of the European Parliament’s UK Office, said “The European Parliament has powers over issues that affect our daily lives, so there are real choices to be made in the election. The campaign shows what some of those choices might be in the hope that this will encourage people to vote”.
A similar set of posters will also be unfurled on Monday in Edinburgh and then on Tuesday in Birmingham and Glasgow. Later in the campaign – from 4-30 May – 3D installations based on similar themes and multimedia “Choice Boxes” will be placed in city squares or shopping centres. The “Choice Boxes” will be a walk-in interactive multimedia booth in which voters will be able to record a video message giving their views and opinions on the choices facing the European Parliament.
The European Parliament’s UK Office is also organising an elections Roadshow which will travel round major British cities in the last two weeks of May.
The overall intensification of political competition at the EU level should be seen in a particular context indicating the importance of the 2009 elections.
Source: Centre for European Studies [edited]
By : DR WOJCIECH GAGATEK
Many political scientists have long been arguing that the lack of connection between the results of the elections and the subsequent composition of the European Commission has been one of the key obstacles to the emergence of a pan-European political debate, and ultimately, for increased voters’ attention. From the point of view of the Euro-parties, it has led to the effect that so far they have not shaped their campaigns around their approval or criticism of the previous Commission (as would be the case nationally with the governing and opposition parties), but instead have focused on their ideas and solutions for the EU without much reference to the previous commission’s record. Most Euro-parties were further complaining that their electoral role and a real partisan, pan-European campaign, cannot be fully developed until the introduction of a common, pan-European constituency. In other words, without changes within the EU’s institutional environment, not much change was predicted.
However, this campaign seems to be going in another direction. In a certain sense it confirms that the greater politicisation of EP elections does not solely depend on the institutional changes within the EU architecture. I mean here the emergence of a stronger political competition between the EPP and the PES and the unprecedented level of direct criticism of one against the other, both within their manifestoes, but also in the declaration of their leaders. The overall intensification of political competition at the EU level should be seen in a particular context indicating the importance of the 2009 elections. First of all, the fact that President Barroso decided to run for the next term as the Commission President, and that the EPP has recently supported his candidature, makes it more likely to structure the campaign based on the Commission’s governing record (even though the Commission is not only composed of its president). Secondly, both the EPP and the PES have accepted that the political family that wins the European Parliament elections will have the right to nominate the candidate for the Commission Presidency from their own ranks. If, then, the EPP’s opponents treat the candidature of Jose Manuel Barroso as a partisan one, it seems reasonable to expect a counter candidate coming from the coalition of the PES and some other Euro-parties, such as the Greens, who recently adopted the resolution entitled “Stop Barroso”. All these changes can in effect raise the citizen’s interest in these elections and show that there is something at stake that they need to pay attention to. The problem is, however, that unless at least a part of the national campaign is centred on EU affairs, rather than, as it is now a commonplace tendency, focused on the national issues, the intensification of the above political and partisan conflict at the EU level may not reach the citizens. It all depends on the political will of the national party elites and also of the national mass media to report on it, and any institutional changes are not a prerequisite for it. However, the first steps in politicising the EP election have been already made at the EU level and it will be extremely interesting to observe the direction in which it will develop.
Good negotiating skills, clear values and language skills are just three attributes required to be an effective MEP.
Source: European Parliament [edited]
Good negotiating skills, clear values and language skills are just three attributes required to be an effective MEP according to some Members we spoke to recently. They also stressed the need to have a good overview of the state of Europe and be able to listen to other points of view. Given very differing political cultures and approaches to politics across the 27 EU states we asked a random selection of Members from all corners of Europe what they think makes a good MEP.
Young Spanish Member, Daniel Bautista, of the centre right EPP-ED group believes Members “should have very good knowledge of not just the workings of the European Institutions but also a good overview of the state of Europe, politically and culturally.” He also went on to stress “the importance of having an open character and being able to negotiate with MEPs from other countries and political groups”, and “the ability to speak at least one foreign language”.
For British Labour party Member Arlene McCarthy “a good Euro-MP needs to listen to and take up concerns and issues, identify where Europe can be part of the solution, cut through Brussels bureaucracy and work across national and party political boundaries to get results.”
The chair of the Parliament’s Internal Market Committee went on to say: “People power can win with the support and advocacy of a good Euro MP. That’s how we changed European gun law to help cut crime on our streets and how we have given new rights to consumers from cutting mobile phone roaming charges to improving toy safety.”
Swedish Social Democrat Jan Andersson chairs the Committee on Employment and Social Affairs: “A good MEP is enthusiastic, stays well-informed about important dossiers and knows how to listen to other people’s views. They also have clear values and know what they want, and are not afraid to stand up for their opinion.” He went on to say that they should also have good connections with other MEPs to achieve a good compromise. “It is also good to have a lot of energy since European decision making sometimes can be very hectic.”
Romana Jordan Cizelj is a Slovenian scientist elected in 2004. She noted that “knowledge of one’s subject areas” and persistence in achieving your goals are important. She also believes that “creativity and diligence” are qualities a good MEP should have. Ms Jordan Cizelj – an MEP for the EPP-ED group – also stresses the importance of being “communicative with people” and above all to have a “positive approach” to one’s work.
Paul Rübig, the Austrian Member of the EPP-ED group who drafted the Parliament’s response to new measures to reduce roaming charges fro phones told us: “You have to realise problems and then work on their solutions, it is in reality a problem-solving mechanism that the European Parliament is representing. You need a lot of idealism to keep on building this Europe. It is nice to be part of this history making process and to be part of what Europe is building.”
“Important for Members to be active in the House”
Former Estonian Prime Minister turned Socialist MEP, Andres Tarand, told that “the experience of being an MEP was different between so called new and old EU member states.” He felt that often “it is better to have younger people as MEPs as they have good language skills and can be more flexible sometimes”. Mr Tarand also stressed that former Prime Ministers and Foreign Ministers can offer their expertise especially in areas such as foreign affairs. He also said “it is important for all Members to be active in the House.” He also made the point that the Baltic States, Britain and Scandinavia often shared similar political outlooks on many issues.
Visit the European Parliament website for more information about how to vote
As unemployment is the priority campaign issue, it is absolutely clear that it is the areas associated with the daily and personal life of Europeans which are paramount.
Source: Eurobarometer [edited]
Background:
The European Parliament regularly commissions surveys on public opinion in the Member States. They are intended to give a better idea of the public perception of its activities and the perception within the European Union as a whole. The surveys provide valuable guidance for preparing and assessing its work and decision-making. The surveys tackle questions such as what the public expects from the European elections in June 2009 and the issues that they think should be given priority.
The results of this survey on the elections should be considered in the context of the current international situation. In fact, the survey’s fieldwork (January/February) coincides with highly-charged international events: the inauguration of Barack Obama, the launch of his first recovery plan, the situation in Gaza, etc.
There are a number of important trends to note:
Campaign issues:
Unemployment is by far the campaign issue which Europeans wish to see tackled as a priority during the European electoral debate. This result confirms the enormous concern of Europeans in the face of the present situation and that which is to come, especially as regards their personal situation.
Level of awareness of the elections:
The increase in awareness of the date is confirmed in comparison with the last two surveys. On the other hand, interest in the elections is not increasing and the likelihood of voting or not voting remains the same. The factors influencing the voter’s choice in the election (candidates’ experience both in the European and national domains, electoral program etc.) as well as the factors which cause them to abstain from voting are practically the same as those which were analysed in the EB/PE69 (Spring 2008).
The role of the EP:
Opinion is polarising gradually as we get closer to the election. Practically half of Europeans want to see it play a more important role while one sixth states the contrary. The number of “don’t know” answers is decreasing.
The EP and the expectations of European citizens:
The demand for greater protection of the consumer and of public health as well as a better coordination of economic, budgetary and fiscal policies are the issues citizens most want to see addressed as a priority by the EP. As unemployment is the priority campaign issue, it is absolutely clear that it is the areas associated with the daily and personal life of Europeans which are paramount. This leads to a demand for greater protection at EU level in the face of a crisis, the end of which no-one currently knows. In parallel, we note from these results that the international role of the EU is perceived as less important for European citizens. There is currently an increase in those who would like the Union to address, as a priority, their everyday problems. As regards values, the protection of human rights in the world is still in first place with a jump of 4 percentage points. The international context, marked by an intensification of certain conflicts and by increasing repression in many regions of the world, undoubtedly has a bearing on this. It is also presumably the reason why the defence of freedom of expression, evaluated for the first time, is found in 4th place (30%) of the values which the Parliament should defend as a priority.
EU enlargement and election rules : a paradox?
Source: Euroactiv [edited]
As it continues to enlarge, the European Union needs to review its current vote weighting and abandon the veto system, Erhard Busek, special enlargement advisor to the Czech EU Presidency, told EurActiv in an interview.
Pressure is mounting to change decision-making systems in the European Union, said Busek, who until recently was special coordinator for the Stability Pact for South-Eastern Europe. He said fears that decision-making is becoming more and more difficult were behind the reluctance of a number of countries to proceed with further enlargement.
“Personally, I’m convinced that the current voting weight repartition, as well as the lack of qualified majority vote in most of the situations, is the real background of these hesitations. It has nothing to do with region, because it’s completely clear for all member states that all the Western Balkan countries should become members of the EU,” Busek said.
“My personal opinion is that […] there could be a bloc of entering countries. Because the real danger is – and we have to learn from the experience of Slovenia and Croatia – is that one country blocks the neighbouring country because of bilateral problems. It’s a real nonsense and I think it’s better to do it all together,” Busek said.
The Austrian politician did not hide that his own country was opposed to enlargement with respect to Turkey, but he said he believed that Vienna favours enlargement to the Western Balkans. As for Germany, he said the election campaign ahead of the national elections in September was blocking any decisions or discussions regarding EU enlargement.
Asked whether Albania would follow the example of Montenegro and file an official EU membership application against the advice of Brussels (EurActiv 10/03/09), he indicated that this could indeed be the case, with the government using the move as an “asset” for the 28 June parliamentary elections.
Illustration: "Citizenship", Rafael Lopez, www.rafaellopez.com
We would like to highlight in this post the work of Professor Osler, founding director of the interdisciplinary Centre for Citizenship and Human Rights Education at the University of Leeds.
She began her career as a teacher and has experience working for local authorities as an adviser for multicultural education and as a director of a teachers’ centre.
Prof Osler has received career recognition from a wide range of bodies, both nationally and internationally. In 2003 she was winner of the Times Educational Supplement/ NASEN award for best academic book. From 2003-2005 she was sole European representative on the University of Washington’s Consensus Panel on Citizenship and Diversity. She has acted as an advisor to a number of international organizations, including UNESCO, the Council of Europe and the Carter Center at Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia. She has also acted as advisor and/or trainer to national governments and NGOs, including the Korean Commission on Human Rights; the Development Education Association of Japan; Equitas, Canada; the government of Macedonia (FYROM); the Jordanian Ministry of Education in collaboration with UNICEF; the Kenyan Ministry of Education; and the Ethiopian Ministry of Education.
Prof Olser’s research focuses on the socio-cultural contexts of learning and on education policy as it relates to questions of equity and human rights. Research projects have addressed the processes of school inspection; exclusion from school; teacher careers and professional development; student perspectives on schooling; children’s human rights; diversity, identity and citizenship; faith schooling and social cohesion; and the processes of implementation of European and national policies on citizenship and multiculturalism.
Abstracts of recent publications:
“This article examines recent UK government policy and proposals relating to immigration and citizenship, and the ways in which these policies are presented as means of securing allegiance and integration. From 1997, the incoming Labour government emphasized the importance of informed, active citizenship and social justice. From 2001, the emphasis shifted to community cohesion, with immigrants identified as a potential threat to cohesion. The article analyses the knowledge required of new settlers through the `citizenship test’, introduced in 2005, and the assumptions made about immigrants and about British culture and society in the test. It critiques the concepts of `active citizenship’, `earned citizenship’ and `probationary citizenship’ in the 2008 Green Paper, The Path to Citizenship . These policy proposals, if enacted, threaten migrants’ employment opportunities, risk creating barriers to participation and undermining social cohesion. They place unrealistic demands on aspirant citizens, which are not placed on established citizens.”
“This paper examines the British Labour government’s developing political discourse on patriotism, citizenship and multiculturalism since 1997, particularly following the 2001 terrorist attacks in the United States and the 2005 London bombings. It focuses on the speeches of key government figures, notably Prime Ministers Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, and on the ways in which they apply their ideas to the teaching of history and citizenship in schools. It contrasts a broadly cosmopolitan rhetoric about Britain and its role in the world with a narrower focus on British history and “British values”. It considers concerns about the radicalisation of Muslim youth and how such concerns are related to a discourse about separation and communication, applied to minorities in general, and to Muslims and to Muslim women in particular. Political discourse is contextualised within the race relations legislation of the period. The author reflects on challenges that arise when history is harnessed in a project to promote national unity. It suggests that history teaching needs to be reframed, so as to recognize that students are not only citizens of a nation-state but are also emergent cosmopolitan citizens living in an age of globalization and universal human rights.”
On the basis of our predicted make-up of the next European Parliament, José Barroso has a good chance of being re-elected as Commission President.
Source: Predice09.eu [edited]
Predict09.eu is a prediction of the outcome of the June 2009 European Parliament elections and the resulting make-up of the next European Parliament. The prediction is based on a statistical model of the performance of national parties in European Parliament elections, developed by three leading political scientists: Simon Hix (London School of Economics), Michael Marsh (Trinity College Dublin), and Nick Vivyan (London School of Economics). The prediction will be updated each week until the elections on 4-7 June.
Executive Summary
The European People’s Party will still be the largest group in the next European Parliament, with approximately 249 seats, which is a decrease in percentage terms, from 37% to 34% of the MEPs. The Socialist group will win approximately 209 seats, which is a slight increase in percentage terms, from 27% to 28% of the MEPs. The Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE) will secure approximately 87 seats. A new European Conservative group, composed of the British Conservatives and their allies, may be the fourth largest group, with about 56 seats. There will be approximately the same number of anti-European and Extreme Right MEPs (about 50 in total) in the new Parliament as in the current Parliament.
Whereas in the current European Parliament the combined forces of the centre-right are larger than the combined forces of the centre-left, in the new Parliament the centre-left are centre-right will be evenly balanced: with about 41% of the seats each, compared to 38% for the left and 40% for right in the previous parliament.
On the basis of our predicted make-up of the next European Parliament, José Barroso has a good chance of being re-elected as Commission President. However, this assumes that the Liberals (ALDE) would support an EPP-Conservative coalition in support of Barroso, which is not a foregone conclusion. An alternative “progressive” coalition, of Liberals, Socialists, Greens, and Radical Left MEPs could still block the re-election of Barroso.
Note: The total number of MEPs will fall from 785 in the current European Parliament to 736 in the new European Parliament elected in June.
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